Where will the light brown apple moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) survive in Canada?

CLIMEX and MaxEnt, two bioclimatic modelling softwares, were used to predict areas in Canada where the light brown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana (Walker), may be able to survive and establish if accidentally introduced. Currently absent from Canada, the polyphagous feeding habit of this moth makes it a significant phytosanitary threat. As a result, it is classified as a quarantine pest and is therefore regulated by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency.

Preliminary modelling results indicate that warmer, low-lying, coastal areas of Canada would be able to support populations of this moth. Interception data and damage potential forecasts were integrated with modelling results in order to assess the justification for classifying this moth as a quarantine pest.