Climate change impacts on pollinators–risks in space and time

Climate change is expected to have wide ranging impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem function. Using climate envelope models, we quantified the expected range shifts of 550 species of European bee under three contrasting climate change scenarios. For all scenarios by 2050, we predict high rates of species extinction coupled with severe range contractions for many remaining species. Analysis of historical data for perennial crop flowering phenology and bee flight periods revealed that while flowering time has remained reasonably constant since 1970, bee flight times have become consistently earlier leading to a potential decoupling of pollination services. For the six bee species studied, we found a significant shift towards an earlier start of activity of 6-10 days per decade. Together the expected spatial and temporal shifts in pollinating bees under climate change pose a major threat to the community structure and functioning of many European wild and agro-ecosystems.