From the bottom up–extending laboratory studies of cold tolerance to large-scale models

Geographic-scale models of insect distribution or population responses are useful for predicting pest outbreaks, invasive species spread and responses to climate change. Models based on bioclimatic envelopes predominate, but there are several well-characterised bottom-up models that make use of laboratory data on physiology to predict insect responses. This talk will critically examine this approach, and – using insect overwintering biology as a focal point - highlight the need for greater knowledge of the interactions between an organism’s phenotypic plasticity and the variability it encounters in its environment. We will use examples from invasive species (Emerald Ash Borer), the impact of repeated freezing events and the energetic costs of warmer winter conditions.