We generated probabilistic models that estimated the rate at which T. piniperda would colonize the southern and western U.S. if the logs and lumber with bark, stump and bark nugget pathways were deregulated singly and in combination. GIS and climate modeling were used to increase the precision and transparency of the models. Our models estimated that Spring shipments of logs and lumber with bark is the pathway with the highest likelihood for T. piniperda colonization. The bark nugget pathway during the Spring was also a high likelihood pathway for colonization in the Western United States. The other pathways and seasons were considered low likelihood for colonization. This information could be used to help facilitate efficacious regulation while minimizing the impact on affected industries.