John T. Trumble, john.trumble@ucr.edu, University of California, Riverside, Department of Entomology, Riverside, CA
Climate change is occurring. While there is some controversy regarding the cause, there is little doubt that C02 levels are rising, UV levels are escalating, and temperatures are increasing. Most models suggest that rainfall patterns will change and an increase in severity of storms (and pest movement) can be expected. The cumulative effects on plants and insects are likely to be substantial. As C02 rises, changes in the carbon to nitrogen balance in plants will affect insect feeding, concentrations of plant defensive chemicals, plant compensation responses to insect herbivory, and Interspecific competition between pest species. Temperature increases already have caused changes in species diversity and distribution. Ominously, geographic patterns of outbreaks of arthropod-born pathogens are also expected to extend to more northern latitudes. Additional changes in current climatic boundaries and agro-ecosystem borders have significant implications not only for population dynamics of native pest species, but for the occurrence and severity of invasive species as well. We are just beginning to understand the negative implications of the interactions of anthropogenic pollutants with climate change. By some estimates, agricultural productivity in Africa, Asia and Latin America is expected to decrease by as much as 20%, with less developed countries suffering the greatest negative effects. All of these changes present challenges and opportunities for sustainable programs based on integrated pest management. New cultivars, major changes in IPM programs, increased funding, and improved response time to new pest outbreaks will be needed if the world food supply is expected to keep pace with growing human populations.
Keywords: pest management