Pine shoot beetle, Tomicus piniperda (Linnaeus): analysis of regulatory options

The establishment of invasive plant pests in the United States can result in the implementation of regulatory programs designed to mitigate their spread and damage. As the damage potential of a pest is elucidated over time it may be necessary to reevaluate the need for the regulatory program. Here we provide a mechanism for evaluating long standing domestic regulatory programs using the pine shoot beetle, Tomicus piniperda, timber regulatory program as a case study. We constructed a probabilistic simulation model that estimated T. piniperda’s spread and the value of annual timber damage that could occur with and without a regulatory program under an expected and low damage scenario. The estimated impacts are judged against decision criteria for determining Federal response to pest events. Our results indicate that maintaining the T. piniperda regulatory program for the at-risk area is beneficial for both the expected and low damage scenarios. Our methodology could be adopted for evaluating other regulatory pest programs.