Estimating the probability of establishment and spread of biological organisms using limited data and novel models

Predictions of large-scale ecological patterns and processes are critically dependent on the type of data available and our ability to make inferences using them. This is exemplified by prediction of the spread of invasive species, a global driver of environmental change. Here, data often consist of records of where species are found, however at locations in which species are not found, uncertainty remains about whether they have simply not been detected or are truly absent. Nevertheless, I show how it is possible to estimate current and future extent of a given species, probabilities of establishment and detection, as well as the number and location of sites likely to be established but not detected - quantities central to both scientific understanding and policy decisions. I also briefly discuss a pathway level model of establishment.