Landscape pollination services under alternative futures in the Willamette Valley, OR

Pollination services provided to natural and agricultural landscapes are influenced by the composition and configuration of that landscape.  Future alterations in a landscape can change the appropriation and distribution of pollination services provided by insect communities.  The Willamette Valley of Oregon is a complex matrix of natural, agricultural, and urban landscapes and previous studies have examined the effects of alternative future landscapes on wildlife habitat, water quality, and carbon cycling.  In this study, I examine the effects of three alternative futures determined by the application of conservation, development, or no-change policies to the management of the landscape on pollination services.  I use the InVEST tool to model the impacts to major Hymenoptera pollinator guilds in the Willamette Valley.  All three alternative futures exhibit both positive and negative changes in pollinator distributions and service provisioning.  The expansion of urban areas and grass seed fields and the closure of currently open forests have major negative impacts, while expansions of currently rare native habitats have positive impacts.