A risk model for Frankliniella bispinosa (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) in Southern highbush blueberries in North-central Florida

A model based on temperature was developed for Frankliniella bispinosa (Morgan) in southern highbush blueberries. Parameters used to create the model were from a 65 year old study of Thrips imaginis (Bagnall) on rose bushes in Australia.  The logistic pattern associated with T.imaginis growth was included in the model: Y[t+1] =Y[t]+dY where dY =M*Y[t]*(1-(Y/Ymax)). Parameter estimation using Optim in R; a sensitivity analysis was done using Morris in the R sensitivity package to determine the contributions of the various parameters to the quantity being predicted. The model was able to predict the population density for duration of 80 days.

Data from a life history study on F. bispinosa a key pest of blueberries in the southeastern U.S, was used to calibrate this model. A risk index was created based on previous work done to establish the action threshold of  F. bispinosa in blueberry plantings to quantify the potential for damage posed to the blueberry crop. Data collected in the 2013 growing season was used to test the model.