Prediction of change in the synchronization between the phenology of Scotinophara lurida (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) and rice plants in the context of new climate change scenario

Scotinophara lurida (Burmeister) is a sap-sucking rice pest that causes white ear head in rice. S. lurida has one generation a year, overwinters as an adult near the paddy fields, and immigrates into paddy fields when rice plants are growing. Climate change would affect the phenology of both S. lurida and rice plants. Therefore, it is worthwhile to determine whether this insect pest would maintain its pest status in rice in the future under the current global warming trend. National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) provides climate change scenarios in South Korea by down-scaling the RCP scenario of the IPCC. In this study, we calculated immigration timing of overwintered adult S. lurida into paddy fields and the rice growing period under the RCP 8.5 scenario to determine the degree of synchronization between S. lurida and rice plants. The degree-day based cumulative flight model of overwintered adult S. lurida was used. The leaf emergence rate and final leaf number models of 3 types of rice cultivars (Odae, Hwaseong, Ilpum) were used to predict the rice transplanting time. Daily mean temperatures of 3 periods, 2001~2010, 2051~2060, 2091~2100 were used for calculation. Then, we generated a GIS map for synchrony in the phenology of rice and S. lurida. Assuming growing of the current major rice cultivar type, the results indicated:  the last immigration time of S. lurida moves forward ca. 15 days and the rice transplanting time moves backward ca. 40 days in each period compared to those in the period of 2001~2010. In 2050s, the immigration of overwintered S. lurida into paddy fields would not occur in the southern coastal and central lowland areas. In 2090s, except for the northern mountainous area, immigration of S. lurida into paddy fields is not expected to occur.