Modeling geographical distribution of insect population under possible climate change scenario in Korea

Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)
Jung-Joon Park , Department of Applied Biology, Institute of Agricultural and Life Science, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, South Korea
Kijong Cho , Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
Earth's average temperature has risen by 0.78°C over the past century, and is projected to rise another 1.1 to 6.4°C over the next hundred years based on RCP 8.5 climate change scenario in South Korea. Small changes in the average temperature of the planet can translate to large and potentially dangerous shifts in biosphere. Based on climate change scenario, local distribution of well-known species should be changed in near future. Models, if applied appropriately, give useful and rapid predictions of the potential distribution of the target species. CLIMEX is one of modeling systems that may provide insights into the climatic factors that limit the geographical distribution of a species in different parts. Climatic parameters and the climate matching function of CLIMEX enable the risks of an exotic species as well as well-known species to be assessed by directly comparing the climatic condition of a given location with any number of other locations without knowing the full distribution of a species. We generated detail weather database including RCP 8.5 climate change scenario of South Korea for CLIMEX, and simulated using the data of several insect pest popoulations in Korea for future environmental risk assessment.
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