Climatic prediction of insect migration patterns

Climatic simulations of insect distributions typically have been based on expected changes in temperature and consequent insect development rates and geographic range expansion.  Simulated changes in atmospheric circulation have generally been lacking in their application to insect migration patterns, although several General Circulation Models generate mean values of horizontal wind velocity for use in climate change analyses.  The Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was used to simulate migratory flight patterns of adult fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, from distinct source areas in Texas and Florida using contemporary weather data and climatic change scenario data.  Accurate predictions of varying distribution patterns of migratory insects will contribute significantly to maintaining effective pest management practices as regional crop production systems adapt to climatic variability.