Predictive modeling of the effects of climate change on the infestation patterns of a migratory crop pest

Climate change is projected to expand the distribution of warm-climate agricultural pests. Adapting U.S. agriculture to this emerging problem requires the timely monitoring of pest movements, an understanding of the meteorological factors that define migration, and the ability to forecast climate induced changes in infestation patterns. We propose to use fall armyworm, a major pest in the Western Hemisphere, as a model system to address these objectives. The technical resources available for fall armyworm provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the effects of climate change on the migration of an important agricultural pest. We are in the process of establishing a monitoring infrastructure that uses fall armyworm as a bioindicator of climatic effects on migration. This will allow the development of forecasting models to identify agricultural regions likely to face climate-induced increases in fall armyworm pressure and thereby facilitate grower decision-making on agricultural practices and crop choice. These objectives apply directly to the long-term goal of improvements in the forecasting and controlling of pest outbreaks brought about by climate variability and long-term climate change.