The 2005 ESA Annual Meeting and Exhibition
December 15-18, 2005
Ft. Lauderdale, FL

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Saturday, December 17, 2005 - 3:06 PM
0957

Modeling random effects on first-order environmental dissipation and biological growth processes

Bruce Stanley, bruce.h.stanley-1@usa.dupont.com, Dupont Crop Protection, Stine-Haskell Research Center, P.O. Box 30, Newark, DE

Many environmental and biological processes follow first-order kinetics, where the rate of change is proportional to its current state. This is often the case whether it is the change in a concentration of a chemical or the growth or decline of a biological population. The rate of change may be affected by a variety of factors, such as temperature, light intensity or abundance of food, that follow a probability distribution. The moment generating function provides a quick method to estimate the mean and variance of the process through time. This allows valuable insights for environmental risk assessment or population forecasting.


Keywords: decay, growth

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