The population dynamics of the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis, Hübner) are more complicated than the simple proportions of transgenic and non-transgenic corn in the landscape. Corn phenology at the time of moth flight and the availability of habitat containing alternate hosts influence both oviposition and the survival of larvae. A deterministic model of corn borer oviposition preference and larval survival was developed and applied to a landscape of diverse corn phenology and alternate host habitat. Simulations of area wide population dynamics were conducted by applying this model to individual cells of a large geographic model with stochastically chosen corn phenologies. A population genetics model was incorporated and transgenic corn was introduced to the landscape. Transgenic corn influenced area wide population dynamics and may have evolutionary consequences beyond transgenic resistance.
Species 1: Lepidoptera Crambidae Ostrinia nubilalis (European corn borer)
Keywords: stochastic modeling, resistance management
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