Green peach aphid, Myzus persicae, is the primary vector of PLRV and PVY in potato. Since the mid-1980s, these viruses have caused annual losses exceeding $20 million in the seed potato industry of Minnesota and North Dakota. Myzus persicae does not overwinter in the Red River Valley. Migration of M. persicae is associated with the low-level wind events in the spring. The origins of these migrants and their pathways of arrival are not well understood. Our goal is to develop a model to forecast the annual M. persicae abundance in Minnesota and North Dakota based on synoptic weather patterns in May and June. Extreme minimum temperatures in southern states are used to define the distribution of anholocyclic overwintering populations, while the acreage of peach in each county is used to define distribution of holocyclic overwintering populations. A meteorological model, HYSPLIT, developed by the Air Resources Laboratory, NOAA is used to track the source and trajectory routes of M. persicae spring migration. Geographic Information System ArcGIS© is used to integrate the spatial and temporal data, and to create host and trajectory maps. Results show that most 48 hours back trajectories originated in Texas and Oklahoma where both primary and secondary hosts of M. persicae are available. This model may also apply to other immigrant pests in the Red River Valley.
Species 1: Homoptera Aphididae Myzus persicae (green peach aphid)
Keywords: origin, immigration
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