Recent interceptions of live Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata) larvae in fruit that had been cold-treated during transit from abroad have lead to a re-evaluation of the scientific basis for current regulatory treatment schedules (USDA T107). A time-temperature response surface model based on the original experimental data from 1916 was developed and evaluated based on subsequent experimental trials and surveillance data collected from shipping operations during 2001. The resultant model is reasonably robust and supports the conclusion that the current treatment schedule falls short of the intended probit 9 level of security (probability of larval survival=3.2 x 10-5). Given the vintage of the data, methodological inconsistencies among studies, and the potential consequences of new introductions, additional research is warranted. Quantitative analysis of the currently available data suggests that future studies regarding the efficacy of cold storage should focus on low temperature - short duration treatments, where uncertainty about performance appears greatest. The analysis of subsequent experiments also demonstrates that for cold treatment trials most often resulting in zero survivors, Bayesian statistical methods applied to a series of replicated trials of more manageable size offers a feasible alternative to conducting impracticably large mega-trials.
Species 1: Diptera Tephritidae Ceratitis capitata (Mediterranean fruit fly)
Keywords: cold treatment, model
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