Monday, December 10, 2001 -
D0224

Simulation of remedial action plans for pink bollworm resistance to Bt cotton: Can Pandora's box be closed?

Mark Sisterson, Bruce Tabashnik, Yves Carrière, and Timothy Dennehy. University of Arizona, Department of Entomology, Forbes 410, Tucson, AZ

Transgenic crops producing Bt toxins are now planted on millions of hectares in the United States and elsewhere. Widespread use of Bt crops places strong selection on pests to evolve resistance. Tactics to prevent the evolution of resistance have been explored extensively through the use of computer simulations and nearly all models suggest that the evolution of resistance can be delayed, but is inevitable. The key output in many models is the time required for the resistance allele to reach a frequency of fifty percent. However, as resistance increases in a region, decreased efficacy of Bt crops may be detected by growers or by monitoring programs before the resistance allele reaches a frequency of fifty percent. If so, remedial action to prevent the spread of resistance may be taken. The Arizona Bt Cotton Working Group has been developing remedial action plans to prevent the spread of resistance once it is detected in field populations of the pink bollworm (Pectinophora gossypiella). There are two key components to remedial action plans. The first is the level of resistance that can be detected. The second is the effectiveness of the remedial action on eliminating the discovered resistant population. We used computer simulations of a spatially explicit model of our system to explore how these two variables affect the success of remedial action plans. The results will allow us to better determine methods to deal with resistance once it has been observed.

Species 1: Lepidoptera Gelechiidae Pectinophora gossypiella (pink bollworm)
Species 2: Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt)
Keywords: Bacillus thuringiensis, transgenic crops

The ESA 2001 Annual Meeting - 2001: An Entomological Odyssey of ESA