Complexity
Results/Conclusions

This contribution makes two basic points: (1) there is a “capital sin” in the framing of the issue of sustainability generally adopted by Western science, which is behind the choice of narratives of neo-classical economics. Sustainability is viewed as the stabilization of the “status quo” in which the identity of the “story teller” (choosing the variables and the functions to be optimized in the models) is never questioned. It is the rest of the world which has to be fixed according to “human wants” using technology, where “human wants” are those expressed by hegemonic political groups; (2) the issue of sustainability requires learning how to deal with the “tragedy of change”: in their unavoidable process of becoming socio-economic systems will have to accept to loose something (meaning pieces of their own identity) in order to be able to retain something else (other pieces of their identity). For this reason, an analysis of sustainability should adopt analytical tools, which must be semantically open in their representation of change. Science for governance, when applied to the issue of sustainability, should help to explore biophysical constraints affecting human choices, while avoiding the pitfalls of determinism.

An innovative analytical method - Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) – is proposed to deliberate about the tragedy of change in quantitative terms. This approach uses concepts derived from Complex Systems theory: (i) “mosaic effect”; (ii) “impredicative loop analysis”; and (iii) “multi-purpose grammar” for building a shared perception and representation of the “tragedy of change” associated with sustainability. By definition, a grammar reflects an agreement on an expected set of relation between semantic and formal categories across hierarchical levels and across different narratives within a semiotic process. When applied to the metabolism of societies it determines a “Sudoku effect” over the value taken by the various variables used in integrated analysis. A Sudoku is not deterministic as long as it remains in a sub-critical state (= not enough information to determine the identity of all the positions on the grid). Political passion and technical ingenuity can make possible to generate a virtually infinite number of different solutions. However, in order to negotiate and deliberate wisely, it is important to be able to characterize the relative option space in terms of: (1) desirability and acceptability of the various options (an evaluation that is different for different actors); and (2) compatibility with biophysical and ecological constraints.