The construction of an algorithm for predicting exotic insect distributions is currently in progress. The environmental parameters conducive to insect establishment and survival are determined. These parameters are then plugged into an algorithm that generates an index value based on hourly data. The index values confer information regarding the speed of establishment in a given locality based on temperature and humidity. The index values are then geo-coded to weather station locations where the environmental parameters were obtained. The resulting grid is then interpolated into a map which provides a representation of areas where establishment is likely to occur. The interpolated map can also be queried to locate specific areas within a given index value range. Once the prototype is completed, its predictions will be tested against the documented geographic ranges of known exotic insects that have become established in the United States.
Keywords: distribution model
The ESA 2001 Annual Meeting - 2001: An Entomological Odyssey of ESA